Environment, Economy, Politics.

[avb3]

AVB,

One thing that I have been trying to figure out is if Bloomberg has a significant financial interest in Tesla Motors and Elon Musk.
I have hunch that they do and they sure sure seem to be flooding the internet with pro Tesla articles.
We all know that Tesla is having a hard time with cash flow these days and Musk is posting significant financial losses.

"Having tapped the equity market eight times for capital over the past seven years to fund Tesla Inc.’s growth -- and cover its losses -- Elon Musk is turning to the bond market."
Now this:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-07/tesla-planning-1-5-billion-bond-offering-to-support-model-3

Is Bloomberg cashing in on marketing bonds now for Tesla?  You know, no one spends money on articles and reports for nothing, follow the money.

Main trouble with EV now is that utility scale solar and wind are not up to the level yet to accommodate mass EV charging.  What is the point of burning fossil fuel to charge EV cars?  Conservation of energy still applies and every conversion in form has losses.

None of this addresses the issue that will impact Alberta.


Simple math shows that if the current trendline of EV sales continues, the demand for more than 2 million barrels of oil A DAY will disappear.


How do you suggest we in Alberta deal with that? I proposed some solutions, but can they be ramped up in short order? This is only 6 years away, at CURRENT trendline of sales, and I doubt there is anyone who thinks that the sale of EV vehicles won't grow significantly, resulting in far greater displacement of oil demand.


It doesn't matter if one believes in climate change being anthropogenicly caused or not, the consumer is making a choice more and more towards EVs. That lessens the market for oil. That affects us on Alberta.


It really is as simple as that.

[AxeMan]

Okay, post here in six years then and tell me you told me so.
Obviously we are screwed then.  Bloomberg has to be right on.   

[avb3]

Okay, post here in six years then and tell me you told me so.
Obviously we are screwed then.  Bloomberg has to be right on.   

So, we should just ignore the impact?


I'd lambaste any politician who would knowingly not plan for the reduction of demand for our O&G. Being prepared is the only logical thing to be. However, as our politicians only plan on 4 year cycles, it's easier to just push it off to the next government, which won't be the NDP.

[Walleyes]

So, we should just ignore the impact?


I'd lambaste any politician who would knowingly not plan for the reduction of demand for our O&G. Being prepared is the only logical thing to be. However, as our politicians only plan on 4 year cycles, it's easier to just push it off to the next government, which won't be the NDP.

Quit reading fake news.

http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/kevin-libin-the-awesome-unstoppable-revolutionary-electric-car-revolution-doesnt-actually-exist/wcm/2a1f30a4-88f1-47c2-aba4-8b619c0129f0

http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/lithium-may-be-the-new-oil-but-theres-a-double-whammy-looming-for-the-new-energy-source/wcm/9c50106d-20ab-4e8f-b220-3453ded645b3

http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/lawrence-solomon-how-teslas-elon-musk-became-the-master-of-fake-business/wcm/12e8fd62-b49d-40d1-90e4-03105e49a514

http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/electric-car-threatens-oils-century-long-reign-but-change-will-be-slower-than-the-hype/wcm/f585ffc1-6dc9-4080-a6f4-4aea403c2fda

[AxeMan]

Ya, exactly.  I already tried to point out to him that Tesla and Bloomberg are in bed together in the bond market to try to cover huge losses at Tesla but he is still standing 100% behind Bloomberg's propaganda.   Completely ignored my explanation of it with "None of this addresses the issue that will impact Alberta."

A very common theme from hard core environmentalists is that they cling on to unproven and many times fake news articles published by people and organizations with an agenda to make free money.  That is why I threw out the Gore/Suzuki/Dicaprio stuff earlier.  These hypocrites publish their gloom and doom reports so that they can profit from it.  I am quite certain that Bloomberg is biting on this tactic now too, why wouldn't they.  There is billions of dollars to made. 

The very obvious question of mass utility scale renewable energy (solar/hydro/wind/geothermal) infrastructure exists.  It will need to develop over a period of decades before mass EV can become a benefit to anyone.  Burning fossil fuel to produce electricity to charge electric vehicles is just stupid.

Seems that Ontario jumped the gun on EV subsidies and fell for the hype too.  Stupid move on their part at this time.
http://globalnews.ca/news/3547509/electric-car-subsidies-ontario-quebec/

Politicians are already keenly aware of the fact that Alberta must diversify its economy but it is not like they can flick a switch over night.  One thing is abundantly clear though, higher taxes like the NDP are forcing on us and industry are completely counter-productive to attracting new and diverse industry to Alberta.  Debt financing will also stifle any real opportunity for growth, another pitfall the NDP fell deeply into.  Albertans are going to have to accept that only frugal spending on government programs and hard work by all (no welfare state) is the future if indeed the energy market stays pressured.  I also believe that energy markets around the world are still relatively healthy and will be for some time to come and we better get our oil to that market.  BC and Trudeau better realize this obvious fact.  SAGD oil production costs have come way down and efficient companies will make a go it as prices recover moderately.  Walleyes drills for that industry now.

[AxeMan]

AVB3, this is some reading for you as I know you demand strong counter arguments:

I guarantee this document from the world's leading energy supplier will provide a very stark contrast to your Bloomberg report.  I stand by my belief that Bloomberg is in bed with Tesla trying to cash in on the inflated stocks/bond market/etc. by hyping Tesla Inc by publishing fake news.  Wall street makes money by attracting traders and Bloomberg feeds on this with analytics right or wrong.

OPEC is banking on INCREASED oil demand until at least 2040
The in depth massive document also addresses the Electric Vehicle effect on oil demands but minimizes it greatly as compared to your Bloomberg report.

World Oil Outlook from OPEC
http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/WOO%202016.pdf
OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) is part of the Organization’s commitment to market stability. The publication is a means to highlight and further the understanding of the many possible future challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for the oil industry. It is also a channel to encourage dialogue, cooperation and transparency between OPEC and other stakeholders within the industry.

Highlight
In regards to the global economy, last year’s WOO anticipated that mediumterm
global economic growth would average 3.6% per annum (p.a.) in the
period 2014–2020. This year it has been revised down slightly to 3.4% p.a.
for the timeframe of 2015–2021. This revised growth rate reflects the fact
that there have been some marginal downward revisions in the medium-term
growth outlook for some regions this year, particularly China and Latin America.
However, the outlook remains optimistic concerning long-term global economic
growth rates, which are the same as those in the WOO 2015, averaging 3.5%
p.a. in the period to 2040.
On the demand side, it is important to highlight that the medium-term
outlook to 2021 is 99.2 million barrels a day (mb/d), which is 1 mb/d higher
than that assumed in last year’s outlook. This is the result of a lower mediumterm
oil price assumption, which is expected to have a stronger influence than
assumptions of lower medium-term economic growth and expanded energy
efficiency policies. In the long-term, however, additional energy efficiency
measures and the potential for new technological developments – such as
World Oil Outlook 2016
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
alternative fuel vehicles – have led to oil demand in 2040 dropping slightly to
109.4 mb/d, a downward revision of 0.4 mb/d compared to last year.

Note: Bloomberg predicts a 2 mb/d decline by as early as 2023.  That is immensely different than OPECs prediction of -0.4 mb/d by 2040!

[avb3]

AVB3, this is some reading for you as I know you demand strong counter arguments:

I guarantee this document from the world's leading energy supplier will provide a very stark contrast to your Bloomberg report.  I stand by my belief that Bloomberg is in bed with Tesla trying to cash in on the inflated stocks/bond market/etc. by hyping Tesla Inc by publishing fake news.  Wall street makes money by attracting traders and Bloomberg feeds on this with analytics right or wrong.

OPEC is banking on INCREASED oil demand until at least 2040
The in depth massive document also addresses the Electric Vehicle effect on oil demands but minimizes it greatly as compared to your Bloomberg report.

World Oil Outlook from OPEC
http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/WOO%202016.pdf
OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) is part of the Organization’s commitment to market stability. The publication is a means to highlight and further the understanding of the many possible future challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for the oil industry. It is also a channel to encourage dialogue, cooperation and transparency between OPEC and other stakeholders within the industry.

Highlight
In regards to the global economy, last year’s WOO anticipated that mediumterm
global economic growth would average 3.6% per annum (p.a.) in the
period 2014–2020. This year it has been revised down slightly to 3.4% p.a.
for the timeframe of 2015–2021. This revised growth rate reflects the fact
that there have been some marginal downward revisions in the medium-term
growth outlook for some regions this year, particularly China and Latin America.
However, the outlook remains optimistic concerning long-term global economic
growth rates, which are the same as those in the WOO 2015, averaging 3.5%
p.a. in the period to 2040.
On the demand side, it is important to highlight that the medium-term
outlook to 2021 is 99.2 million barrels a day (mb/d), which is 1 mb/d higher
than that assumed in last year’s outlook. This is the result of a lower mediumterm
oil price assumption, which is expected to have a stronger influence than
assumptions of lower medium-term economic growth and expanded energy
efficiency policies. In the long-term, however, additional energy efficiency
measures and the potential for new technological developments – such as
World Oil Outlook 2016
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
alternative fuel vehicles – have led to oil demand in 2040 dropping slightly to
109.4 mb/d, a downward revision of 0.4 mb/d compared to last year.

Note: Bloomberg predicts a 2 mb/d decline by as early as 2013.  That is immensely different than OPECs prediction of -0.4 mb/d by 2040!

Thanks for the article.

Reading from the same report's executive summary, one finds the following:


pg 10

Energy  mix  continues  to  see  fast  growth  for  renewables,  but  53%  of  the  world’s energy needs will still be satisfied by oil and gas in 2040 Currently, fossil fuels – namely, oil, gas and coal – account for 81% of the global energy mix. By 2040, fossil fuels will maintain their importance in the global energy mix,  although  with  a  lower  share  of  77%  of  total  energy  demand.  Combined,  oil  and gas are forecast to satisfy 53% of the energy needs in 2040, similar to current levels.

pg 19

Policies  geared  to  accelerate  fuel  efficiency  improvements  and  a  faster  penetration  of  alternative  fuel  vehicles  have  the  potential  to  significantly  reduce oil demand In Scenario A, oil demand in 2040 will reach 106.9 mb/d, which is 2.5 mb/d less than in the Reference Case. Furthermore, between 2030 and 2040, demand growth decelerates significantly so that demand actually plateaus at the end of the forecast period. In Scenario B, oil demand peaks in 2029 at 100.9 mb/d and then declines to 98.3 by 2040. This is 11.1 mb/d lower than in the Reference Case. In  Scenario  A,  the  oil  demand  reduction  compared  to  the  Reference  Case  is  mainly  a  result  of  efficiency  improvements  in  all  sectors  of  consumption.  In  Scenario  B,  the  introduction  of  policies  that   support   achieving   the INDC targets is com-bined  with  the  assump-tion   of   an   accelerated   technology  development  and  its  transfer  across  countries.    Similar    to    Scenario  A,  this  would  have  implications  for  oil  demand in each sector of consumption with the road transportation in the frontline. In this sector, demand is expected to drop by 6.2 mb/d by 2040 as a result of the higher fuel efficiency im-provements and a much faster penetration of alternative fuel vehicle.

The long and short of this is that by 2040, only 53% of the world energy needs are from O&G. In, addition, technology (read EVs and other efficiencies), may well drop demand by over 6 million barrels/day. That is not a divergence from the Bloomberg report, seeing 2 million barrels/day drop in demand.

From Rigzone, it is even more onerous:

In the reference case, due to penetration on EV, hybrid, fuel cells and autonomous vehicles expected to displace 13.8 MMbd, oil demand will peak in 2035. In the high case, auto-industry is expected to displace about 39 MMbd in 2040, and peak is expected to take place in 2025.

Goldman Sachs reflects much of what Bloomberg advises:

“In our extreme case, we project peak oil demand in 2024,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in the note, as quoted by Reuters

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-Sachs-Warns-Of-Global-Oil-Demand-Peak.html


My point is regardless if Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs are pessimistic that peak demand is only a few years away, even OPEC, from your link, is concerned about lower demand.I stand by my concern that Alberta needs to diverse much faster than it ever has, as we do have high cost oil, and there are enough warning bells out there that demand will decrease. Virtually all forecasts suggest now that 2040 is peak demand, and some, suggest it may be 16 years earlier. Thanks for a good discussion point.

[AxeMan]

Thanks for the article.

Reading from the same report's executive summary, one finds the following:


pg 10

Energy  mix  continues  to  see  fast  growth  for  renewables,  but  53%  of  the  world’s energy needs will still be satisfied by oil and gas in 2040 Currently, fossil fuels – namely, oil, gas and coal – account for 81% of the global energy mix. By 2040, fossil fuels will maintain their importance in the global energy mix,  although  with  a  lower  share  of  77%  of  total  energy  demand.  Combined,  oil  and gas are forecast to satisfy 53% of the energy needs in 2040, similar to current levels.

Cherry picked snippet of percentages but the world demand for oil has also increased over that time period in actual quantity.
From the chart immediately below your quoted snippet:
Levels mboe/d
2014  2020  2030  2040
85.1   90.7   96.7   99.8
Growth
% p.a = 0.6 million barrels per year until the year 2040


pg 19

Policies  geared  to  accelerate  fuel  efficiency  improvements  and  a  faster  penetration  of  alternative  fuel  vehicles  have  the  potential  to  significantly  reduce oil demand In Scenario A, oil demand in 2040 will reach 106.9 mb/d, which is 2.5 mb/d less than in the Reference Case. Furthermore, between 2030 and 2040, demand growth decelerates significantly so that demand actually plateaus at the end of the forecast period. In Scenario B, oil demand peaks in 2029 at 100.9 mb/d and then declines to 98.3 by 2040. This is 11.1 mb/d lower than in the Reference Case. In  Scenario  A,  the  oil  demand  reduction  compared  to  the  Reference  Case  is  mainly  a  result  of  efficiency  improvements  in  all  sectors  of  consumption.  In  Scenario  B,  the  introduction  of  policies  that   support   achieving   the INDC targets is com-bined  with  the  assump-tion   of   an   accelerated   technology  development  and  its  transfer  across  countries.    Similar    to    Scenario  A,  this  would  have  implications  for  oil  demand in each sector of consumption with the road transportation in the frontline. In this sector, demand is expected to drop by 6.2 mb/d by 2040 as a result of the higher fuel efficiency im-provements and a much faster penetration of alternative fuel vehicle.
More cherry picking....lower than the reference case which is actually almost 110 mb/day.  The safe reductions (from the reference without counting on EV factors) based on worst case scenarios are the reflected in 99.8 mb/day increase in 2040.  Tisk tisk...I had more faith in you to see this.

The long and short of this is that by 2040, only 53% of the world energy needs are from O&G. In, addition, technology (read EVs and other efficiencies), may well drop demand by over 6 million barrels/day. That is not a divergence from the Bloomberg report, seeing 2 million barrels/day drop in demand.
Not at all, the percentage of the entire energy mix drops but the overall oil demand still increases.  You need to very carefully reread the report.  The source of your error is that even though oil will make up a smaller percentage of the worlds increasing energy demands compared to other energy sources, it will still increase in actual demand quantity.  Some of the other sources of energy will just outpace it.

From Rigzone, it is even more onerous:

In the reference case, due to penetration on EV, hybrid, fuel cells and autonomous vehicles expected to displace 13.8 MMbd, oil demand will peak in 2035. In the high case, auto-industry is expected to displace about 39 MMbd in 2040, and peak is expected to take place in 2025.

Goldman Sachs reflects much of what Bloomberg advises:

“In our extreme case, we project peak oil demand in 2024,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in the note, as quoted by Reuters

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-Sachs-Warns-Of-Global-Oil-Demand-Peak.html


My point is regardless if Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs are pessimistic that peak demand is only a few years away, even OPEC, from your link, is concerned about lower demand.  No, that is your erroneous conclusion, they are predicting a moderate increase. I stand by my concern that Alberta needs to diverse much faster than it ever has, as we do have high cost oil, and there are enough warning bells out there that demand will decrease. Virtually all forecasts suggest now that 2040 is peak demand, and some, suggest it may be 16 years earlier. Thanks for a good discussion point.

Anyway, I think we have effectively debunked this Bloomberg fake news story enough now.  There will not be a lower demand for oil by 2040.  The meat and potatoes of the OPEC report says that.

[avb3]

Anyway, I think we have effectively debunked this Bloomberg fake news story enough now.  There will not be a lower demand for oil by 2040.  The meat and potatoes of the OPEC report says that.

Well, if that is the case, I guess Alberta, with its high priced oil sources, has nothing to worry about. Glad that is cleared up.

[AxeMan]

Not a worry.  Trudeau has us covered with his new DOPE economy.  If times really get tough, Rachel can just borrow more money.   

[Walleyes]

A more diverse economy is always better no one argues that fact not even us oil boys. In fact Alberta has quite a diverse economy it's just never brought to light, can't buy votes that way. No doubt oil is our big player and why not, its the hottest commodity in the world why wouldn't we be using it.

I read these on these forums how people especially out on the west coast want our governments to quit investing in oil and gas resouces due to the fact they have been duped into thinking that the industry is over that EV's are the future. Many reference the horse whip as it went out of style and those that invested in it went broke when the motorized vehicle came out. Only problem is the motorized vehicle was a far superior mode of transportation compared to the horse and buggy. An EV is not superior in any way in fact it's a very poor mode of transportation in many aspects. I would more compare the EV's to the microwave oven yes they're a novel idea but they never did replace the home oven much like the internal combustion engine will never be completely replaced by EV's. There may be one in every second driveway but it will be an addition not a replacement. Maybe in some cities it will be and by all accounts it should be, those smog infested shat holes need to do something. The fact remains the earths population continues to grow and advance at a faster rate than these vehicles can be produced, maintained and equipped. The ironic thing is, most people don't stop to think about what it will take to supply these new toys. The vast mining industry, the huge equipment required to acquire the product and produce it, and then the disposal of these products ouch !! All we are doing is replacing an industry not removing one and I'm afraid the one we are brining in is worse in the long run.

[LeverAction]

Bingo, all sounds nice on paper, but tell the average family man that a small car will cost him a 100 grand so he can save the planet, and he'll be telling you pretty quick to dig up the earth to find oil. These people want to save the world as long as they are not the ones sacrificing their life style. We are many years away from replacing what we use now.

[AxeMan]

Trudeau handing out cheques to many thousands of illegal Haitian migrants.
I saw in the news tonight a few of them interviewed in the line ups, "where is my cheque - why are we having to wait...blablabla".
They can all f-off.    Not refugees at all, just bums looking for handouts.  They are from the US.
What the hell is wrong with Trudeau.  What a piece of human crap.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/asylum-seekers-border-crossing-1.4258928

[W101]

 Forget about Notley , NAFTA , etc. this is what you
  really should worry about . Irreversible Liberal , Trudeau
  stupidity . Western Canadian seperation becomes more
  obvious all the time !


   http://nationalpost.com/news/world/forget-nafta-the-roaring-silence-around-canadas-trade-talks-with-china-is-even-more-troubling/wcm/6a4161c0-6df0-4451-a757-745710a34398

[AxeMan]

Trudeau handing out cheques to many thousands of illegal Haitian migrants.
I saw in the news tonight a few of them interviewed in the line ups, "where is my cheque - why are we having to wait...blablabla".
They can all f-off.    Not refugees at all, just bums looking for handouts.  They are from the US.
What the hell is wrong with Trudeau.  What a piece of human crap.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/asylum-seekers-border-crossing-1.4258928

Andrew Scheer finally speaks up and condemns Trudeau's policies on this illegal migration and handouts of cash and healthcare.  About time.
http://globalnews.ca/news/3693399/andrew-scheer-canadians-rightly-concerned-about-asylum-seeker-benefits/

[W101]

AND on the political front ...
    I m definitely leaning towards Jason , he never misses
     an opportunity to show us how stupid Notley is !
    I could never be a lefty , because with my bad back
     I could never get my head that far up my ass.
     

    http://www.calgarysun.com/2017/09/05/premier-slams-kenney-for-playing-politics-with-curriculum

[Walleyes]

Socialism is a disease and an infestation that has to be squashed in every form and matter. They will brain wash our children into their doctrine. They aren't happy the get our children in our universities they want to get at them in Kindergarten and start the mantra their.

 A disgusting disease !!

[LeverAction]

Well I agree, but where are the leaders from the other side trying to squash it. I don't see anyone kicking Socialism in the ass when they pull this nonsense. We need someone from the opposition to get on the apple cart and start screaming like hell, what are they waiting for? Be to late a year from now.

[W101]

 This unbelievable story is carried by 4 major news
  sites ...this Calgary has turned into a major crap hole .
   

   http://nationalpost.com/health/calgary-muslim-website-defends-female-circumcision-and-critiques-jewish-media

  Liberal mayor and council , are just part of the problem ....
   

[AxeMan]

I see France's pretty boy might have our Justin beat at his own game....

http://globalnews.ca/news/3695726/emmanuel-macron-french-president-makeup/

Spends $30 K on makeup during his first 3 months, on the taxpayers back of course.
Good on them dfker's, they elected his liberal ass.